138. Why Narendra should never be India’s Prime Minister! The idea of Modi as Prime Minister is a pipe dream…
I am an admirer of Sonia Gandhi. I would not have been an admirer of hers if she were India’s Prime Minister. Whether she failed or succeeded would not matter but the fact that someone not born in the country running the government as Prime Minister would be upsetting.
I am a fan of hers because she did not grab power when she could have on two occasions. In 1991 when her husband died and in 2004 when her party won the general Election under her leadership. I am also a fan of hers because she, as a rank outsider has respected the sensitivities of several million Indians who would not have liked her to be Prime Minister.
I am also a fan of Manmohan Singh because of what he did to India between 1991 and 1996 and for his impeccable credentials. I am not a big fan of the Congress party though. There is a difference between being a fan or admirer and being a sycophant.
I write this blog as someone who grew up in the 80s and 90s witnessing more holidays at school because of national closures due to politically backed violence rather than because it was summer vacation. I write this blog because I believe that India deserves better than members of dynasties to lead it – be it the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty or the Sangh Parivar dynasty. I write this blog because I love my country more than anything else in the world and want to see it as the real superpower it ought to be by 2030.
Let me come to the point after some beating around the bush. The Indian Prime Minister in the 21st century should have a few attributes and according to me they are:
a) A good education
b) A world view
c) A reliable character whose intentions are widely known
d) A national-level political experience of having been elected and been part of a central government and
e) A great understanding of communication since this is an age of connecting
The incumbent (PM Singh) has most of the above qualities. He lacks to some extent the 5th and has faced several brickbats for not communicating with the nation especially during the several scams that has rocked the government. But he belongs to a different school of thought and has mended his ways in recent times embracing social media, meeting members of the press among other things. His personal integrity remains blemish less and his pedigree in unmatchable – which has been criticized but despite all the hue and cry he brings dignity to the office and is recognized for his wisdom by world leaders.
There has been a lot of talk about Rahul Gandhi being a future Prime Minister. But in most interviews he has clearly voiced that he is not interested in the job. Whether he takes up the job or not in the future is another topic but right now there is no vacancy and he has to earn it rather than get it on a platter.
This brings me to the core purpose of this blog. Narendra Modi has been portrayed as the potential Prime Minister candidate by is supporters and by sections of the BJP. Nothing wrong with that but the hurdles are one too many and I can list out 5 reasons why he will not be the Prime Minister of a great nation. After I do that I will list out 5 reasons why he should not be the leader of a country whose fabric is made up of threads that will never let a fallacy happen.
BJP is no different from the Congress except for ideology. They are both full of people who are communal and corrupt. The degrees may differ but the bottom-line is they both practice the two Cs in different ways. The third evil C of Crime is also prevalent in these two large national and semi-national parties. I say semi-national because BJP has a zero presence in some of India’s important states in the form of elected legislators.
Having said that here are the 5 reasons Modi will not be able to be Prime Minister:
a) In the event of BJP along with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Shiv Sena (SS) get a clear majority. These are the only 2 allies who will not be opposed to Modi as Prime Minsiter. Even Jayalalitha who shows friendly gestures to the BJP and Modi will show her true colours when it comes to a situation of having Modi chosen as Prime Minister. Even if SS and SAD win every Lok Sabha seat in the two states they are based in (61 in total) the BJP will have to get 200 seats on its own in the Rest of India which seems an impossibility given their recent performance in UP where an SP wave will prevail in 2014. Remember UP sends 80 Lok Sabha members.
b) Let us imagine a scenario were NDA has a comfortable majority, it is highly unlikely it’s currently largest ally the Janata Dal (united) co-led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will allow Narendra Modi to be the choice. The compromise candidate could be Arun Jaitley in that scenario
c) Let’s imagine a scenario the UPA is routed and NDA has the numbers (in the range of 275) thanks largely to a large chunk from Bihar (around 30) which sends 40 members to the lower house and AIADMK joins the coalition by then and wins another 30 of the 39 seats. And SAD continues its roll in Punjab picking up 10 of the 13 seats. That will mean the BJP has about 200 seats considering their other allies TRS and AGP win 5-6 between them. This will be an unlikely scenario. But if this scenario emerge Nitish and Jayalalitha will both throw in their hat for the top job.
d) Let’s imagine the miracle of miracle takes place and BJP on its own wins 273 seats, it is highly unlikely that Sushma Swaraj or Arun Jaitley will want to give Modi a chance. In 2014, Advani maybe 85 and will also want his last chance which will obviously not given to him. Then there are Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha and Murli Manohar Joshi who are not pro-Modi who will spoil his party.
e) Lastly, chances of NDA and BJP coming to power without projecting a PM candidate are bleak. Modi is a double edged sword. If they do not project him he will not find takers later. If they do it is sure shot target to doom with the allies, leave alone at the hustings.
If all these reasons sound shoddy and the moment for Modi to become Prime Minister emerge (super-hypothetical) he SHOULD NOT be for the following reasons:
a) LACK OF NATIONAL EXPERIENCE: We have seen how a Rajiv Gandhi bungled with inexperience. Managing Gujarat and managing India is not the same. Gujarat is what it is because of the enterprising Gujaratis and the dynamic IAS officers mostly from Tamilnadu and other parts of India who run the show (I have had some of them as clients and seen how superb they are at the job). Narendra Modi was planted in Gujarat the same way some say Manmohan Singh was planted at the centre. But the difference is, one allowed mass murders to take place by inaction in the first 6 months of being sent to Gujarat, while the other is an architect of India in the 21st century. If BJP is serious about Modi why did they not invite him to campaign in UP 2 months ago.
b) LACK OF CREDENTIALS: What are his qualifications for the job? How much of international diplomacy does he understand or economics does he comprehend. He belongs to an organization that is known for its violent activism which he has shunned for the moment in order to clean up the mess of 2002.
(Click on highlighted words for links)
c) INABILITY TO MANAGE LAW AND ORDER: India’s best Prime Ministers in the last 2 decades have all come with a fairly clean record. Narasimha Rao, Atal Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh never had fingers pointing at them before they got into power for murder. But their tenure did have the worst incidents of violence in modern times. Babri Masjid demolition during Narasimha Rao’s time. Attack on Parliament, Kargil War and Godhra massacre during Vajpayee’s rule and the Mumbai terror attack during Manmohan Singh’s rule. Corruption and Communalism are both bad. But communalism that kills human beings is any day worse than corruption that kills the economy. People can argue that there has been not a single riot after Godhra in 2002. My response to that is there cannot be. Because riots are a creation of the political class and when they realize that it can prevent them from rising up the hierarchy they ensure it is prevented.
d) CORRUPTION: While there has always been lack of evidence on how after Pramod Mahajan’s death Modi is the man the BJP depends on for its party finances and that he is the money bags for the party there was no evidence until now. However the recent CAG report proves that theory right.
e) CRIME: Let’s forget Godhra for a moment. The encounter killings and the fake terror threats are bluffs that have been called. Modi’s right hand man who was his deputy minister for Home is not permitted by the courts to live in his own state because he is capable of tampering evidence. All crimes committed by some of the people in uniform had the tacit blessings of Modi. What is the guarantee he will not repeat such acts if he is given a national role. At best Modi can become the I&B minister in an NDA government at the center.
One must also read these 5 links to get a better insight into the Modus Operandi called Modi
For all those pseudo-Modi fans who feel he has done a great job in Gujarat and he will do the same for India my advice is stop dreaming. Just as I believe a naturalized citizen of foreign origin should not be the Prime Minister of India, a man who allowed innocent lives to be destroyed under his watch should never be the leader of a country that won its freedom from 65 years ago.
We do not need a dynasty person. As much as Sonia and Rahul are form the dynasty, Modi is from the Sangh Dynasty. The difference is that they are not blood relatives in the Sangh but they bay for innocent blood. I’m sure a country of over a billion people will be destined to be ruled by someone we deserve and that someone will emerge from the ranks of people like Nitish Kumar, Arun Jaitley or Pranab Mukherjee.
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